News Release from The American Geosciences Institute , Alexandria, Va.
"You have probably heard of “100-year
floods” and “500-year droughts,” and perhaps you’ve seen signposts near rivers
showing when the last big flood was or statements about when the last severe
drought occurred. But do you really know what those terms mean, or what your
likelihood is of experiencing such a hazard in any given year? Probably not,
according to Richard Vogel of Tufts University, because although such terms
have long helped policymakers and the public try to make sense of severe
weather, they may confuse the issue more than clarify it.
Return periods refer to the amount of time that passes on
average between consecutive events of similar magnitude for a given location.
“The famous 100-year flood is the flood that’s exceeded on average once every
100 years,” meaning “it has a 1 percent chance of occurring in any given year,”
Vogel told EARTH. But when it comes to communicating potential risk from
flooding, Vogel says, return periods give many people a false sense of
security, partly because they are often mistaken as absolutes instead of
averages.
So what does the “100-year flood” actually mean, and how can
people get a better sense of what their risks actually are? Read more in the
January issue of EARTH magazine: http://bit.ly/1x5HFov.
For more stories about the science of our
planet, check out EARTH magazine online or subscribe at www.earthmagazine.org.
The January issue, now available on the digital newsstand, features stories on
whether the iceberg that sunk the Titanic was anomalous, where ash from a
Yellowstone supervolcano eruption would likely settle, and how huge shell piles
from the Incan period in Peru offer clues to past El Niño events, much, much
more.
Keep up to date with the latest happenings in Earth, energy
and environment news with EARTH magazine online at http://www.earthmagazine.org/.
Published by the American
Geosciences Institute, EARTH is your source for the science behind the
headlines."
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The American Geosciences Institute is a
nonprofit federation of 50 geoscientific and professional associations that
represents more than 250,000 geologists, geophysicists and other earth
scientists. Founded in 1948, AGI provides information services to
geoscientists, serves as a voice of shared interests in the profession, plays a
major role in strengthening geoscience education, and strives to increase
public awareness of the vital role the geosciences play in society's use of
resources, resiliency to natural hazards, and interaction with the environment.
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